Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sirio Pharma Co., Ltd. (300791.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.15 - $271.25$254.20
Multi-Stage$42.74 - $46.77$44.72
Blended Fair Value$149.46
Current Price$23.78
Upside528.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS72.76%14.34%0.870.330.300.290.100.060.170.891.050.55
YoY Growth--161.99%10.18%4.90%180.47%81.22%-67.75%-80.36%-15.41%92.84%140.21%
Dividend Yield--4.31%1.53%1.41%1.66%0.29%0.43%0.50%0.00%0.00%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1143.1925.91
Cash Retained (M)169.20169.20169.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.11-43.19-25.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.09126.01143.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)253.34253.34253.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$142.15$254.20$271.25
Upside / Downside497.76%968.96%1,040.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.53367.99391.91417.38444.51473.40487.60
Payout Ratio51.03%58.83%66.62%74.41%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.33216.47261.08310.58365.42426.06451.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)201.71203.62205.53
Year 2 PV (M)226.69231.01235.37
Year 3 PV (M)251.29258.50265.85
Year 4 PV (M)275.49286.08296.98
Year 5 PV (M)299.31313.77328.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,573.0710,035.4510,515.53
Equity Value (M)10,827.5611,328.4311,848.04
Shares Outstanding (M)253.34253.34253.34
Fair Value$42.74$44.72$46.77
Upside / Downside79.73%88.05%96.67%

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