Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Three Squirrels Inc. (300783.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.70 - $112.98$47.59
Multi-Stage$12.54 - $13.71$13.11
Blended Fair Value$30.35
Current Price$24.10
Upside25.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.98%136.28%0.260.160.230.240.250.010.010.270.040.00
YoY Growth--60.28%-30.88%-4.84%-2.41%3,249.13%-17.05%-96.61%613.73%1,830.52%3,965.98%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.70%1.18%0.92%0.64%0.01%0.04%1.26%0.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.4428.4017.04
Cash Retained (M)125.88125.88125.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.44-28.40-17.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.4497.48108.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.92399.92399.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.70$47.59$112.98
Upside / Downside-5.82%97.47%368.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.20241.97257.69274.44292.28311.28320.62
Payout Ratio44.60%53.68%62.76%71.84%80.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.32129.88161.72197.15236.51280.15296.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.56120.69121.82
Year 2 PV (M)137.04139.65142.28
Year 3 PV (M)153.79158.20162.70
Year 4 PV (M)169.83176.36183.08
Year 5 PV (M)185.18194.13203.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,250.144,455.434,668.57
Equity Value (M)5,015.545,244.465,481.87
Shares Outstanding (M)399.92399.92399.92
Fair Value$12.54$13.11$13.71
Upside / Downside-47.96%-45.59%-43.12%

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