Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lakala Payment Co., Ltd. (300773.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.52 - $4.07$3.22
Multi-Stage$3.56 - $3.89$3.72
Blended Fair Value$3.47
Current Price$24.34
Upside-85.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%40.11%0.930.030.021.011.030.000.000.000.000.02
YoY Growth--3,045.70%74.18%-98.31%-2.28%0.00%-100.00%-67.71%27.55%-83.43%-45.23%
Dividend Yield--5.44%0.21%0.09%4.26%3.42%0.00%0.01%0.02%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.4722.1713.30
Cash Retained (M)13.1213.1213.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.47-22.17-13.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22.35-9.05-0.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)775.45775.45775.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Fair Value$2.52$3.22$4.07
Upside / Downside-89.66%-86.79%-83.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.36181.43185.59189.85194.21198.67204.62
Payout Ratio92.60%92.08%91.56%91.04%90.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.24167.06169.93172.84175.80178.80189.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)152.25153.75155.25
Year 2 PV (M)141.12143.92146.75
Year 3 PV (M)130.81134.72138.71
Year 4 PV (M)121.25126.10131.11
Year 5 PV (M)112.38118.03123.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,101.732,207.552,317.58
Equity Value (M)2,759.542,884.083,013.32
Shares Outstanding (M)775.45775.45775.45
Fair Value$3.56$3.72$3.89
Upside / Downside-85.38%-84.72%-84.03%

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