Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd. (300759.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.23 - $113.32$45.51
Multi-Stage$15.87 - $17.37$16.61
Blended Fair Value$31.06
Current Price$35.75
Upside-13.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.51%43.25%0.310.250.230.160.080.080.040.030.010.01
YoY Growth--21.91%9.89%42.16%110.27%-5.44%91.96%23.10%320.43%-9.47%6.87%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.20%0.70%0.31%0.11%0.31%0.22%0.70%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,512.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,382.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)302.49189.06113.43
Cash Retained (M)1,382.781,382.781,382.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-302.49-189.06-113.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,080.291,193.731,269.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.081,770.081,770.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.23$45.51$113.32
Upside / Downside-26.64%27.29%216.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,512.461,610.771,715.471,826.981,945.732,072.212,134.37
Payout Ratio8.57%24.86%41.14%57.43%73.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.68400.43705.821,049.231,434.291,864.991,974.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)366.44369.91373.38
Year 2 PV (M)591.08602.34613.70
Year 3 PV (M)804.08827.16850.68
Year 4 PV (M)1,005.871,044.551,084.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,196.891,254.701,314.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,135.0425,300.7726,511.12
Equity Value (M)28,099.3929,399.4330,747.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.081,770.081,770.08
Fair Value$15.87$16.61$17.37
Upside / Downside-55.60%-53.54%-51.41%

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