Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yangfan New Materials (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. (300637.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.71 - $9.10$8.52
Multi-Stage$8.06 - $8.92$8.48
Blended Fair Value$8.50
Current Price$13.44
Upside-36.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.16%-1.27%0.070.080.070.090.140.170.110.160.180.10
YoY Growth---22.49%21.76%-21.44%-38.19%-14.89%60.11%-35.95%-8.45%74.59%37.72%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.91%0.82%1.17%1.77%1.70%0.61%1.58%2.46%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.341.460.88
Cash Retained (M)0.840.840.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.34-1.46-0.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.50-0.63-0.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.81234.81234.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate-12.30%-12.30%-12.30%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Fair Value$7.71$8.52$9.10
Upside / Downside-42.61%-36.58%-32.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.7011.4411.1810.9210.6810.4410.75
Payout Ratio92.86%92.29%91.72%91.14%90.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8710.5610.259.969.679.399.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-12.30%-12.30%-12.30%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)11.9112.0412.16
Year 2 PV (M)13.0613.3313.60
Year 3 PV (M)14.3114.7615.22
Year 4 PV (M)15.6916.3517.03
Year 5 PV (M)17.1918.1019.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,820.241,916.292,016.35
Equity Value (M)1,892.411,990.872,093.41
Shares Outstanding (M)234.81234.81234.81
Fair Value$8.06$8.48$8.92
Upside / Downside-40.03%-36.91%-33.67%

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