Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

XDC Industries (Shenzhen) Limited (300615.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.95 - $13.38$12.53
Multi-Stage$6.96 - $7.68$7.31
Blended Fair Value$9.92
Current Price$13.79
Upside-28.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.49%-9.44%0.100.100.060.050.050.040.040.210.140.22
YoY Growth---0.94%74.71%17.06%0.12%30.51%-7.97%-80.00%49.96%-36.38%-20.19%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.80%0.42%0.45%0.49%0.23%0.25%1.80%0.62%2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.761.731.04
Cash Retained (M)2.132.132.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.76-1.73-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.640.401.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.71191.71191.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate-0.97%-0.97%-0.97%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Fair Value$8.95$12.53$13.38
Upside / Downside-35.13%-9.14%-2.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.8113.7313.6413.5613.4813.4013.80
Payout Ratio84.60%85.68%86.76%87.84%88.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6811.7611.8411.9111.9912.0612.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.97%-0.97%-0.97%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)11.7611.8811.99
Year 2 PV (M)11.8312.0712.31
Year 3 PV (M)11.9012.2612.64
Year 4 PV (M)11.9712.4612.97
Year 5 PV (M)12.0412.6613.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,274.061,340.131,408.91
Equity Value (M)1,333.551,401.461,472.14
Shares Outstanding (M)191.71191.71191.71
Fair Value$6.96$7.31$7.68
Upside / Downside-49.56%-46.99%-44.31%

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