Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yangzhou Chenhua New Material Co., Ltd. (300610.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.57 - $8.20$6.09
Multi-Stage$8.22 - $9.02$8.61
Blended Fair Value$7.35
Current Price$11.86
Upside-38.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.79%0.92%0.190.340.350.290.110.080.070.050.040.04
YoY Growth---42.43%-4.73%22.59%162.18%39.94%7.09%43.66%29.33%11.65%-80.01%
Dividend Yield--1.89%3.61%2.74%1.81%0.92%0.97%0.68%0.47%0.21%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.008.755.25
Cash Retained (M)25.8225.8225.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.00-8.75-5.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.8117.0620.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)210.90210.90210.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Fair Value$4.57$6.09$8.20
Upside / Downside-61.46%-48.63%-30.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.0271.0872.1673.2574.3675.4877.75
Payout Ratio63.13%68.50%73.88%79.25%84.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2048.6953.3158.0562.9367.9471.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.51%1.51%2.51%
Year 1 PV (M)45.3345.7846.23
Year 2 PV (M)46.2047.1348.06
Year 3 PV (M)46.8448.2649.70
Year 4 PV (M)47.2749.1851.15
Year 5 PV (M)47.5149.9352.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,499.471,575.561,654.71
Equity Value (M)1,732.641,815.841,902.29
Shares Outstanding (M)210.90210.90210.90
Fair Value$8.22$8.61$9.02
Upside / Downside-30.73%-27.40%-23.95%

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