Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Allwinnertech Technology Co.,Ltd. (300458.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.06 - $37.40$16.87
Multi-Stage$8.16 - $8.92$8.53
Blended Fair Value$12.70
Current Price$51.82
Upside-75.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.05%1.65%0.120.120.210.160.120.120.010.060.040.03
YoY Growth--0.68%-42.68%29.25%33.74%0.00%1,097.14%-83.43%56.21%33.33%-71.43%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.77%0.98%0.73%0.86%1.07%0.10%0.60%0.27%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7722.06
Cash Retained (M)130.41130.41130.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.77-22.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.5793.64108.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Fair Value$10.06$16.87$37.40
Upside / Downside-80.59%-67.45%-27.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.20309.79326.21343.50361.70380.87392.30
Payout Ratio55.67%62.54%69.40%76.27%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.79193.74226.40261.98300.70342.79362.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Year 1 PV (M)178.96180.68182.39
Year 2 PV (M)193.19196.91200.67
Year 3 PV (M)206.50212.50218.61
Year 4 PV (M)218.94227.46236.23
Year 5 PV (M)230.55241.82253.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,772.946,055.046,348.07
Equity Value (M)6,801.087,114.417,439.49
Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
Fair Value$8.16$8.53$8.92
Upside / Downside-84.26%-83.53%-82.78%

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