Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Sunhere Pharmaceutical Excipients Co.,Ltd. (300452.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.00 - $107.07$100.34
Multi-Stage$15.85 - $17.33$16.58
Blended Fair Value$58.46
Current Price$12.91
Upside352.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.15%23.83%0.250.250.230.190.150.120.090.080.040.03
YoY Growth---1.30%8.05%19.44%32.07%25.67%23.63%13.33%114.66%33.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.09%1.93%1.22%1.23%1.16%1.15%0.92%0.90%0.28%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9116.209.72
Cash Retained (M)53.8253.8253.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.91-16.20-9.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.9137.6244.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.65240.65240.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.00$100.34$107.07
Upside / Downside240.80%677.23%729.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.56137.98146.95156.51166.68177.51182.84
Payout Ratio58.46%64.77%71.08%77.38%83.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.7489.37104.45121.11139.50159.76169.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.1083.8984.68
Year 2 PV (M)90.3192.0393.77
Year 3 PV (M)97.37100.17103.02
Year 4 PV (M)104.29108.30112.43
Year 5 PV (M)111.06116.43122.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,328.053,488.803,655.70
Equity Value (M)3,814.193,989.624,171.58
Shares Outstanding (M)240.65240.65240.65
Fair Value$15.85$16.58$17.33
Upside / Downside22.77%28.41%34.27%

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