Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing ConST Instruments Technology Inc. (300445.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.43 - $120.68$113.10
Multi-Stage$82.70 - $90.78$86.67
Blended Fair Value$99.88
Current Price$18.88
Upside429.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.88%7.09%0.080.070.060.050.050.110.060.040.030.03
YoY Growth--15.76%16.67%12.75%-1.49%-53.33%83.93%61.37%12.76%5.17%-19.53%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.37%0.44%0.44%0.43%0.93%0.54%0.30%0.15%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0716.299.77
Cash Retained (M)109.99109.99109.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.07-16.29-9.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.9293.70100.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)214.78214.78214.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate-1.23%-1.23%-1.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.43$113.10$120.68
Upside / Downside442.53%499.02%539.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.33138.80147.82157.43167.67178.56183.92
Payout Ratio15.61%30.49%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3442.3267.0694.84125.95160.71170.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.23%-1.23%-1.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.4442.8443.25
Year 2 PV (M)67.4668.7470.04
Year 3 PV (M)95.6998.44101.24
Year 4 PV (M)127.45132.36137.40
Year 5 PV (M)163.11170.98179.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,266.5718,100.5518,966.45
Equity Value (M)17,762.7218,613.9119,497.53
Shares Outstanding (M)214.78214.78214.78
Fair Value$82.70$86.67$90.78
Upside / Downside338.04%359.03%380.83%

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