Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SanFeng Intelligent Equipment Group Co., Ltd. (300276.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.23 - $0.33$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.35 - $0.39$0.37
Blended Fair Value$0.32
Current Price$9.99
Upside-96.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-49.98%6.22%0.000.010.010.010.060.100.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.39%-13.43%15.56%-89.68%-45.47%5,586.93%-31.52%0.00%0.00%50.00%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.13%0.18%0.13%1.56%2.60%0.03%0.05%0.03%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.726.083.65
Cash Retained (M)46.4546.4546.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.72-6.08-3.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.7340.3842.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,389.181,389.181,389.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate-2.08%-1.08%-0.08%
Fair Value$0.23$0.28$0.33
Upside / Downside-97.66%-97.17%-96.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.6148.0847.5747.0546.5446.0447.42
Payout Ratio4.44%21.55%38.66%55.78%72.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.1610.3618.3926.2433.9241.4443.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate-2.08%-1.08%-0.08%
Year 1 PV (M)9.369.459.55
Year 2 PV (M)14.9915.3015.61
Year 3 PV (M)19.3119.9120.52
Year 4 PV (M)22.5423.4724.43
Year 5 PV (M)24.8526.1527.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)395.76416.39437.86
Equity Value (M)486.80510.66535.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,389.181,389.181,389.18
Fair Value$0.35$0.37$0.39
Upside / Downside-96.49%-96.32%-96.14%

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