Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Newcapec Electronics Co., Ltd. (300248.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.91 - $39.95$37.44
Multi-Stage$27.61 - $30.30$28.93
Blended Fair Value$33.18
Current Price$13.15
Upside152.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.01%16.58%0.090.070.070.070.070.060.070.050.050.03
YoY Growth--21.32%-0.98%10.27%-5.39%22.81%-20.53%30.59%15.58%57.02%60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.85%0.59%0.44%0.77%0.57%0.70%0.61%0.34%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.1311.967.17
Cash Retained (M)55.1655.1655.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.13-11.96-7.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.0343.2047.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.17476.17476.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate-1.31%-1.31%-1.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.91$37.44$39.95
Upside / Downside157.85%184.70%203.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.65101.87108.49115.54123.05131.05134.98
Payout Ratio42.34%51.87%61.40%70.93%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4952.8466.6181.9699.01117.94124.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.31%-1.31%-1.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53.0453.5454.04
Year 2 PV (M)67.1268.4069.69
Year 3 PV (M)82.8985.2787.69
Year 4 PV (M)100.52104.39108.36
Year 5 PV (M)120.19125.99132.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,723.3313,337.8713,975.93
Equity Value (M)13,147.0813,775.4514,427.74
Shares Outstanding (M)476.17476.17476.17
Fair Value$27.61$28.93$30.30
Upside / Downside109.96%120.00%130.42%

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