Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Ruifeng Chemical Co., Ltd. (300243.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.91 - $7.64$7.16
Multi-Stage$1.29 - $1.41$1.35
Blended Fair Value$4.25
Current Price$10.78
Upside-60.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.24%7.50%0.150.030.140.160.110.120.090.060.190.08
YoY Growth--352.96%-77.10%-7.21%39.26%-8.16%37.03%57.47%-69.70%128.75%11.93%
Dividend Yield--1.56%0.39%1.72%1.38%0.85%1.80%0.94%0.51%1.38%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.981.230.74
Cash Retained (M)1.401.401.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.98-1.23-0.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.570.170.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)257.30257.30257.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.91$7.16$7.64
Upside / Downside-54.43%-33.61%-29.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.8810.5211.2111.9312.7113.5413.94
Payout Ratio85.81%86.64%87.48%88.32%89.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.489.129.8010.5411.3312.1812.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.518.598.67
Year 2 PV (M)8.548.708.86
Year 3 PV (M)8.568.819.06
Year 4 PV (M)8.598.929.26
Year 5 PV (M)8.629.049.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)288.87302.82317.31
Equity Value (M)331.69346.88362.63
Shares Outstanding (M)257.30257.30257.30
Fair Value$1.29$1.35$1.41
Upside / Downside-88.04%-87.49%-86.93%

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