Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guanhao Biotech Co.,Ltd. (300238.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.56 - $0.77$0.67
Multi-Stage$1.01 - $1.11$1.06
Blended Fair Value$0.86
Current Price$15.36
Upside-94.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.25%-14.88%0.010.000.010.030.060.060.110.100.030.05
YoY Growth--104.44%-67.24%-47.22%-50.80%-5.06%-49.07%16.72%261.31%-46.96%6.11%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.04%0.12%0.18%0.30%0.36%0.65%0.52%0.09%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.263.291.97
Cash Retained (M)23.5823.5823.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.26-3.29-1.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.3220.3021.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)255.42255.42255.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Fair Value$0.56$0.67$0.77
Upside / Downside-96.35%-95.65%-94.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.3025.2724.2823.3222.4121.5322.17
Payout Ratio10.32%26.26%42.19%58.13%74.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.716.6310.2413.5616.6019.3720.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)6.026.086.15
Year 2 PV (M)8.448.618.80
Year 3 PV (M)10.1310.4610.79
Year 4 PV (M)11.2611.7412.24
Year 5 PV (M)11.9312.5713.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)209.18220.42232.13
Equity Value (M)256.97269.89283.34
Shares Outstanding (M)255.42255.42255.42
Fair Value$1.01$1.06$1.11
Upside / Downside-93.45%-93.12%-92.78%

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