Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Anli Material Technology Co., Ltd. (300218.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.44 - $151.71$49.55
Multi-Stage$21.14 - $23.17$22.13
Blended Fair Value$35.84
Current Price$18.74
Upside91.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.81%-1.14%0.190.290.290.110.220.190.140.220.220.08
YoY Growth---36.07%1.54%157.40%-49.30%13.38%41.79%-37.94%2.51%165.72%-61.25%
Dividend Yield--1.14%2.13%2.77%0.87%1.96%2.37%1.64%2.72%1.55%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)165.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.0620.6612.40
Cash Retained (M)106.15106.15106.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.06-20.66-12.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.0985.4993.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.83213.83213.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$26.44$49.55$151.71
Upside / Downside41.09%164.41%709.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)165.31173.70182.51191.78201.51211.74218.09
Payout Ratio35.78%46.63%57.47%68.31%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.1580.99104.89131.01159.51190.56201.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)75.3276.0476.76
Year 2 PV (M)90.7192.4694.23
Year 3 PV (M)105.36108.43111.55
Year 4 PV (M)119.29123.94128.73
Year 5 PV (M)132.53139.02145.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,997.354,193.114,396.48
Equity Value (M)4,520.554,733.004,953.51
Shares Outstanding (M)213.83213.83213.83
Fair Value$21.14$22.13$23.17
Upside / Downside12.81%18.11%23.61%

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