Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tofflon Science and Technology Group Co., Ltd. (300171.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.93 - $11.95$7.32
Multi-Stage$3.51 - $3.83$3.66
Blended Fair Value$5.49
Current Price$14.25
Upside-61.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.45%5.99%0.240.330.320.180.130.020.020.210.100.21
YoY Growth---26.87%1.74%77.26%43.39%428.17%22.97%-90.68%107.72%-51.29%54.37%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.20%1.19%0.46%0.59%0.30%0.18%2.46%0.76%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.5821.6212.97
Cash Retained (M)114.74114.74114.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.58-21.62-12.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.1593.12101.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)761.37761.37761.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.93$7.32$11.95
Upside / Downside-65.42%-48.62%-16.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.92184.16196.13208.88222.46236.92244.03
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.1982.72110.21140.91175.14213.23225.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.9175.6276.33
Year 2 PV (M)90.3892.1093.84
Year 3 PV (M)104.64107.65110.71
Year 4 PV (M)117.78122.31126.97
Year 5 PV (M)129.86136.13142.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,151.122,255.022,362.90
Equity Value (M)2,668.692,788.832,913.39
Shares Outstanding (M)761.37761.37761.37
Fair Value$3.51$3.66$3.83
Upside / Downside-75.40%-74.30%-73.15%

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