Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Songcheng Performance Development Co.,Ltd (300144.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.21 - $60.33$56.54
Multi-Stage$8.54 - $9.34$8.94
Blended Fair Value$32.74
Current Price$8.76
Upside273.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.88%16.94%0.100.050.050.060.110.070.070.060.050.03
YoY Growth--86.95%-0.82%-0.55%-51.44%70.91%-1.70%13.14%25.39%49.43%49.97%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.50%0.34%0.42%0.53%0.48%0.52%0.52%0.44%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)794.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)527.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)267.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.9199.3259.59
Cash Retained (M)267.27267.27267.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.91-99.32-59.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.35167.95207.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,619.362,619.362,619.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.21$56.54$60.33
Upside / Downside142.16%545.39%588.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)794.57846.22901.22959.801,022.191,088.631,121.29
Payout Ratio66.36%71.09%75.82%80.55%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)527.30601.58683.29773.07871.65979.771,037.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)558.48563.77569.06
Year 2 PV (M)588.88600.09611.41
Year 3 PV (M)618.52636.27654.36
Year 4 PV (M)647.41672.31697.92
Year 5 PV (M)675.58708.21742.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,292.8620,224.7121,192.23
Equity Value (M)22,381.7223,405.3624,467.07
Shares Outstanding (M)2,619.362,619.362,619.36
Fair Value$8.54$8.94$9.34
Upside / Downside-2.46%2.00%6.63%

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