Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Huace Film & TV Co., Ltd. (300133.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.21 - $1.84$1.50
Multi-Stage$2.49 - $2.74$2.62
Blended Fair Value$2.06
Current Price$9.29
Upside-77.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.91%8.87%0.060.030.030.030.040.010.090.090.060.04
YoY Growth--67.11%19.81%12.23%-33.37%177.05%-85.25%5.81%54.49%38.66%68.67%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.36%0.36%0.50%0.63%0.21%1.12%0.73%0.51%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)163.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.3931.4918.90
Cash Retained (M)163.29163.29163.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.39-31.49-18.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.90131.80144.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,864.081,864.081,864.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Fair Value$1.21$1.50$1.84
Upside / Downside-87.01%-83.80%-80.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251.95249.73247.53245.35243.19241.05248.28
Payout Ratio35.19%46.15%57.11%68.08%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.66115.25141.37167.02192.21216.94229.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate-1.88%-0.88%0.12%
Year 1 PV (M)106.72107.80108.89
Year 2 PV (M)121.21123.69126.20
Year 3 PV (M)132.60136.69140.87
Year 4 PV (M)141.29147.14153.17
Year 5 PV (M)147.66155.34163.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,999.644,207.654,424.23
Equity Value (M)4,649.124,878.325,116.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,864.081,864.081,864.08
Fair Value$2.49$2.62$2.74
Upside / Downside-73.15%-71.83%-70.45%

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