Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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YanTai LongYuan Power Technology Co., Ltd. (300105.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.42 - $2.19$1.78
Multi-Stage$3.23 - $3.55$3.39
Blended Fair Value$2.58
Current Price$7.19
Upside-64.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%6.11%0.150.200.000.100.200.000.000.000.000.04
YoY Growth---25.46%0.00%-100.00%-50.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-52.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%3.27%0.00%1.89%3.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.939.955.97
Cash Retained (M)28.0128.0128.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.93-9.95-5.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.0818.0622.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)513.75513.75513.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.42$1.78$2.19
Upside / Downside-80.21%-75.23%-69.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.6378.8378.0577.2776.4975.7378.00
Payout Ratio64.82%69.86%74.89%79.93%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.6255.0758.4561.7664.9968.1572.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)51.1751.6952.21
Year 2 PV (M)50.4651.5052.54
Year 3 PV (M)49.5451.0752.63
Year 4 PV (M)48.4450.4552.51
Year 5 PV (M)47.2049.6552.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,411.741,485.251,561.80
Equity Value (M)1,658.551,739.611,823.92
Shares Outstanding (M)513.75513.75513.75
Fair Value$3.23$3.39$3.55
Upside / Downside-55.10%-52.91%-50.62%

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