Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. (300015.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.08 - $69.10$64.76
Multi-Stage$9.36 - $10.23$9.79
Blended Fair Value$37.27
Current Price$12.34
Upside202.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.52%36.01%0.150.080.070.070.060.060.060.020.030.01
YoY Growth--90.03%11.05%1.52%24.83%3.23%-2.34%171.24%-34.39%201.18%49.88%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.61%0.30%0.38%0.21%0.40%0.61%0.28%0.88%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,219.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,603.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,615.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)643.81402.38241.43
Cash Retained (M)1,615.911,615.911,615.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-643.81-402.38-241.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)972.111,213.541,374.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,264.749,264.749,264.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.08$64.76$69.10
Upside / Downside78.92%424.76%459.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,219.033,428.263,651.103,888.424,141.174,410.354,542.66
Payout Ratio49.80%57.84%65.88%73.92%81.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,603.111,982.942,405.372,874.343,394.113,969.314,201.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,838.771,856.201,873.63
Year 2 PV (M)2,068.312,107.712,147.48
Year 3 PV (M)2,291.872,357.662,424.70
Year 4 PV (M)2,509.542,606.052,705.32
Year 5 PV (M)2,721.452,852.902,989.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,256.9978,891.9382,665.99
Equity Value (M)86,686.9390,672.4594,806.49
Shares Outstanding (M)9,264.749,264.749,264.74
Fair Value$9.36$9.79$10.23
Upside / Downside-24.18%-20.69%-17.07%

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