DDM Analysis: 300002.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.12 - $21.49	$14.37
Multi-Stage	$7.21 - $7.88	$7.54
Blended Fair Value	$10.95
Current Price	$14.27
Upside	-23.24%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.10%	-2.80%	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	96.97%	6.87%	387.06%	-63.96%	-20.37%	-45.18%	-23.68%	-11.28%	-34.09%	4.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.45%	0.31%	0.30%	0.13%	0.35%	0.56%	0.68%	0.69%	0.58%	0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,058.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,057.01

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	211.68	132.30	79.38
Cash Retained (M)	1,057.01	1,057.01	1,057.01
(-) Cash Required (M)	-211.68	-132.30	-79.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	845.34	924.72	977.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,965.79	1,965.79	1,965.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.43	0.47	0.50
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.43	0.47	0.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.43	0.47	0.50
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$10.12	$14.37	$21.49
Upside / Downside	-29.11%	0.69%	50.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,058.39	1,127.18	1,200.45	1,278.48	1,361.58	1,450.08	1,493.58
Payout Ratio	0.13%	18.10%	36.08%	54.05%	72.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.37	204.06	433.10	691.04	980.69	1,305.07	1,381.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	183.78	185.52	187.27
Year 2 PV (M)	351.29	357.98	364.74
Year 3 PV (M)	504.81	519.30	534.07
Year 4 PV (M)	645.21	670.02	695.55
Year 5 PV (M)	773.30	810.65	849.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,708.24	12,273.76	12,860.91
Equity Value (M)	14,166.64	14,817.24	15,491.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,965.79	1,965.79	1,965.79
Fair Value	$7.21	$7.54	$7.88
Upside / Downside	-49.50%	-47.18%	-44.77%

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Beijing Ultrapower Software Co., Ltd. (300002.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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