Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (2869.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.76 - $99.73$93.46
Multi-Stage$14.84 - $16.26$15.54
Blended Fair Value$54.50
Current Price$4.00
Upside1,262.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.52%17.50%0.140.090.170.170.070.060.040.030.010.08
YoY Growth--52.03%-47.48%0.15%145.87%24.03%32.28%34.45%356.40%-91.75%207.25%
Dividend Yield--3.80%3.41%3.75%2.92%0.86%0.74%0.81%0.62%0.29%4.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,587.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)285.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,302.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)317.57198.48119.09
Cash Retained (M)1,302.741,302.741,302.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-317.57-198.48-119.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)985.171,104.261,183.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,166.483,166.483,166.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.76$93.46$99.73
Upside / Downside1,044.11%2,236.47%2,393.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,587.851,691.061,800.981,918.052,042.722,175.492,240.76
Payout Ratio17.96%32.36%46.77%61.18%75.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)285.12547.31842.381,173.511,544.121,957.952,072.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)509.44514.27519.10
Year 2 PV (M)729.84743.75757.78
Year 3 PV (M)946.38973.551,001.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,159.101,203.671,249.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,368.051,434.121,502.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,286.4944,328.9546,449.57
Equity Value (M)46,999.3049,198.3051,479.92
Shares Outstanding (M)3,166.483,166.483,166.48
Fair Value$14.84$15.54$16.26
Upside / Downside271.07%288.43%306.44%

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