Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Louisa Professional Coffee Ltd. (2758.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.02 - $42.88$34.96
Multi-Stage$60.66 - $66.74$63.64
Blended Fair Value$49.30
Current Price$101.50
Upside-51.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.503.006.001.602.740.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---50.00%-50.00%275.00%-41.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%2.24%4.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.818.014.80
Cash Retained (M)33.3333.3333.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.81-8.01-4.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.5225.3228.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.5020.5020.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.001.231.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.001.231.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.502.732.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$28.02$34.96$42.88
Upside / Downside-72.39%-65.55%-57.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.0663.4162.7862.1561.5360.9262.74
Payout Ratio47.97%56.38%64.78%73.19%81.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7335.7540.6745.4950.2154.8258.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)33.1633.4933.83
Year 2 PV (M)34.9835.7036.42
Year 3 PV (M)36.2837.4038.55
Year 4 PV (M)37.1438.6840.26
Year 5 PV (M)37.6139.5741.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,064.481,119.911,177.63
Equity Value (M)1,243.651,304.751,368.30
Shares Outstanding (M)20.5020.5020.50
Fair Value$60.66$63.64$66.74
Upside / Downside-40.24%-37.30%-34.25%

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