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Definitive Analysis

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HD Hyundai Co., Ltd. (267250.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122,554.47 - $247,933.91$171,043.40
Multi-Stage$177,396.22 - $194,629.40$185,849.46
Blended Fair Value$178,446.43
Current Price$129,500.00
Upside37.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172015
DPS3.75%0.00%4,600.035,499.584,599.685,549.563,827.463,827.430.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.36%19.56%-17.12%44.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.34%7.80%7.92%10.32%6.57%9.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)510,037.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254,395.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)255,642.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102,007.5663,754.7338,252.84
Cash Retained (M)255,642.10255,642.10255,642.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-102,007.56-63,754.73-38,252.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)153,634.53191,887.37217,389.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.6770.6770.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,174.032,715.343,076.21
LTM Dividend per Share3,599.873,599.873,599.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,174.032,715.343,076.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,773.906,315.216,676.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Fair Value$122,554.47$171,043.40$247,933.91
Upside / Downside-5.36%32.08%91.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)510,037.81524,042.53538,431.80553,216.17568,406.49584,013.91601,534.33
Payout Ratio49.88%57.90%65.93%73.95%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254,395.71303,432.43354,970.26409,109.58465,954.42525,612.52556,419.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Year 1 PV (M)282,035.83284,807.80287,579.76
Year 2 PV (M)306,673.72312,731.58318,848.68
Year 3 PV (M)328,523.59338,305.70348,280.09
Year 4 PV (M)347,786.43361,662.08375,948.85
Year 5 PV (M)364,650.83382,926.25401,927.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,906,565.3511,453,176.0812,021,486.22
Equity Value (M)12,536,235.7513,133,609.4813,754,070.77
Shares Outstanding (M)70.6770.6770.67
Fair Value$177,396.22$185,849.46$194,629.40
Upside / Downside36.99%43.51%50.29%

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