Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Co Ltd (2517.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.75 - $2.72$2.20
Multi-Stage$4.02 - $4.43$4.22
Blended Fair Value$3.21
Current Price$2.81
Upside14.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)502.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)359.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.5762.8637.71
Cash Retained (M)359.70359.70359.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.57-62.86-37.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.14296.85321.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,711.682,711.682,711.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.75$2.20$2.72
Upside / Downside-37.74%-21.80%-3.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)502.84497.81492.83487.91483.03478.20492.54
Payout Ratio28.47%40.77%53.08%65.39%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143.14202.97261.59319.02375.28430.38455.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)189.00190.92192.85
Year 2 PV (M)226.81231.46236.16
Year 3 PV (M)257.56265.52273.65
Year 4 PV (M)282.11293.81305.86
Year 5 PV (M)301.26316.94333.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,635.4610,137.2010,659.63
Equity Value (M)10,892.1911,435.8612,001.43
Shares Outstanding (M)2,711.682,711.682,711.68
Fair Value$4.02$4.22$4.43
Upside / Downside42.95%50.08%57.50%

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