Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd (2418.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.58 - $0.91$0.73
Multi-Stage$1.43 - $1.57$1.50
Blended Fair Value$1.11
Current Price$1.74
Upside-36.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS9.16%0.00%0.040.040.090.030.150.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.29%-51.79%203.82%-79.30%457.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.37%3.56%11.46%2.08%9.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0616.299.77
Cash Retained (M)41.4141.4141.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.06-16.29-9.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3425.1231.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,181.482,181.482,181.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.10%6.10%6.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.58$0.73$0.91
Upside / Downside-66.76%-58.10%-47.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.32129.02127.73126.45125.19123.93127.65
Payout Ratio68.23%72.58%76.94%81.29%85.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.9293.6498.27102.79107.22111.54118.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.10%6.10%6.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)87.3788.2689.15
Year 2 PV (M)85.5487.3089.07
Year 3 PV (M)83.4986.0788.70
Year 4 PV (M)81.2584.6188.08
Year 5 PV (M)78.8682.9787.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,695.052,835.392,981.51
Equity Value (M)3,111.563,264.603,423.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2,181.482,181.482,181.48
Fair Value$1.43$1.50$1.57
Upside / Downside-18.03%-13.99%-9.80%

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