Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CN Logistics International Holdings Limited (2130.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.61 - $0.86$0.74
Multi-Stage$0.90 - $0.98$0.94
Blended Fair Value$0.84
Current Price$3.42
Upside-75.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.120.310.200.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---74.82%-61.91%52.63%10,388.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.86%2.07%3.92%1.97%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.773.602.16
Cash Retained (M)20.0520.0520.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.77-3.60-2.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.2816.4417.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)292.69292.69292.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.58%10.58%10.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.61$0.74$0.86
Upside / Downside-82.06%-78.46%-74.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.8328.5428.2527.9727.6927.4228.24
Payout Ratio30.46%42.37%54.28%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.7812.0915.3418.5121.6324.6726.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.58%10.58%10.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.8210.9311.04
Year 2 PV (M)12.2912.5412.80
Year 3 PV (M)13.2813.6914.11
Year 4 PV (M)13.8914.4615.05
Year 5 PV (M)14.1814.9215.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)197.98208.29219.03
Equity Value (M)262.44274.84287.72
Shares Outstanding (M)292.69292.69292.69
Fair Value$0.90$0.94$0.98
Upside / Downside-73.78%-72.54%-71.26%

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