Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shengjing Bank Co., Ltd. (2066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.87 - $1.24$1.05
Multi-Stage$1.31 - $1.44$1.38
Blended Fair Value$1.21
Current Price$1.14
Upside6.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.030.060.120.170.180.18
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-53.26%-51.66%-31.20%-2.56%-0.94%321.31%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.44%1.05%3.93%3.20%2.48%2.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,109.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,106.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.83138.6483.19
Cash Retained (M)1,106.911,106.911,106.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.83-138.64-83.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)885.08968.261,023.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,796.688,796.688,796.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.87$1.05$1.24
Upside / Downside-24.00%-7.96%8.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,109.151,098.051,087.071,076.201,065.441,054.791,086.43
Payout Ratio0.20%18.16%36.12%54.08%72.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.24199.42392.66582.02767.55949.311,004.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)180.43182.27184.11
Year 2 PV (M)321.43328.03334.69
Year 3 PV (M)431.07444.40458.00
Year 4 PV (M)514.34535.66557.63
Year 5 PV (M)575.56605.53636.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,506.0910,001.1010,516.51
Equity Value (M)11,528.9212,096.9812,687.68
Shares Outstanding (M)8,796.688,796.688,796.68
Fair Value$1.31$1.38$1.44
Upside / Downside14.96%20.63%26.52%

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