Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zonqing Environmental Limited (1855.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.40 - $36.05$11.69
Multi-Stage$17.57 - $19.39$18.46
Blended Fair Value$15.08
Current Price$5.70
Upside164.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-54.33%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.250.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,055.23%610.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%40.73%3.59%0.53%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)163.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.4820.9312.56
Cash Retained (M)163.33163.33163.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.48-20.93-12.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.85142.41150.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)825.00825.00825.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate2.27%2.27%2.27%
Growth Rate-0.26%0.74%1.74%
Fair Value$6.40$11.69$36.05
Upside / Downside12.29%105.14%532.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.41168.65169.90171.16172.43173.71178.92
Payout Ratio2.43%19.95%37.46%54.97%72.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.0833.6463.6594.10124.99156.34165.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.27%2.27%2.27%
Growth Rate-0.26%0.74%1.74%
Year 1 PV (M)32.5732.8933.22
Year 2 PV (M)59.6560.8562.06
Year 3 PV (M)85.3787.9690.61
Year 4 PV (M)109.78114.25118.86
Year 5 PV (M)132.93139.73146.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,072.4814,792.2115,541.09
Equity Value (M)14,492.7815,227.9015,992.65
Shares Outstanding (M)825.00825.00825.00
Fair Value$17.57$18.46$19.39
Upside / Downside208.19%223.83%240.09%

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