Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Stella International Holdings Limited (1836.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.33 - $9.94$7.22
Multi-Stage$8.81 - $9.66$9.23
Blended Fair Value$8.22
Current Price$1.85
Upside344.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.85%3.06%0.160.110.120.030.060.100.070.090.110.11
YoY Growth--49.40%-11.15%363.03%-53.60%-46.41%41.51%-14.62%-18.06%-0.17%-10.48%
Dividend Yield--7.61%9.07%12.80%2.15%4.83%6.54%6.21%5.73%6.56%4.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.1436.9622.18
Cash Retained (M)65.0665.0665.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.14-36.96-22.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.9228.1042.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)823.18823.18823.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Fair Value$5.33$7.22$9.94
Upside / Downside188.29%290.06%437.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.72301.82308.05314.41320.90327.52337.35
Payout Ratio78.00%80.40%82.80%85.20%87.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.66242.66255.07267.88281.11294.77312.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.06%2.06%3.06%
Year 1 PV (M)225.60227.83230.06
Year 2 PV (M)220.46224.84229.27
Year 3 PV (M)215.25221.70228.28
Year 4 PV (M)209.99218.43227.12
Year 5 PV (M)204.72215.05225.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,174.486,486.066,810.10
Equity Value (M)7,250.507,593.917,950.62
Shares Outstanding (M)823.18823.18823.18
Fair Value$8.81$9.23$9.66
Upside / Downside376.10%398.65%422.08%

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