Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ATON Inc. (158430.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,514.60 - $5,264.01$4,344.38
Multi-Stage$6,715.78 - $7,393.46$7,047.96
Blended Fair Value$5,696.17
Current Price$8,100.00
Upside-29.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172012
DPS0.00%0.00%87.3218.540.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--370.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.68%0.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,552.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,968.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,584.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,910.571,194.11716.46
Cash Retained (M)7,584.177,584.177,584.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,910.57-1,194.11-716.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,673.606,390.076,867.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.6222.6222.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share250.87282.55303.67
LTM Dividend per Share87.0587.0587.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share250.87282.55303.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend337.92369.60390.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3,514.60$4,344.38$5,264.01
Upside / Downside-56.61%-46.37%-35.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,552.869,457.339,362.769,269.139,176.449,084.689,357.22
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,968.693,261.524,528.305,769.426,985.268,176.218,655.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,005.493,036.163,066.83
Year 2 PV (M)3,845.263,924.144,003.82
Year 3 PV (M)4,514.594,654.214,796.67
Year 4 PV (M)5,036.925,245.675,460.85
Year 5 PV (M)5,432.875,715.786,010.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)130,045.61136,817.39143,868.37
Equity Value (M)151,880.75159,393.34167,206.88
Shares Outstanding (M)22.6222.6222.62
Fair Value$6,715.78$7,047.96$7,393.46
Upside / Downside-17.09%-12.99%-8.72%

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