Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ascent Development Co Ltd (1439.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.48 - $16.93$14.76
Multi-Stage$121.49 - $135.87$128.52
Blended Fair Value$71.64
Current Price$29.25
Upside144.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-4.98%0.300.300.201.565.010.000.000.500.500.50
YoY Growth--0.00%50.00%-87.14%-68.90%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.08%0.89%6.53%19.68%0.00%0.00%1.81%2.43%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3232.0819.25
Cash Retained (M)229.01229.01229.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.32-32.08-19.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.69196.94209.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.8391.8391.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.932.142.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.932.142.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.242.452.58
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate-12.72%-11.72%-10.72%
Fair Value$12.48$14.76$16.93
Upside / Downside-57.32%-49.55%-42.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.61226.53199.98176.54155.85137.58141.70
Payout Ratio10.76%26.60%42.45%58.30%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.6060.2784.90102.93115.56123.82131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate-12.72%-11.72%-10.72%
Year 1 PV (M)57.9058.5759.23
Year 2 PV (M)78.3780.1782.00
Year 3 PV (M)91.2894.4597.70
Year 4 PV (M)98.46103.05107.80
Year 5 PV (M)101.36107.30113.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,729.8811,358.8212,016.92
Equity Value (M)11,157.2511,802.3612,477.16
Shares Outstanding (M)91.8391.8391.83
Fair Value$121.49$128.52$135.87
Upside / Downside315.36%339.38%364.50%

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