Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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H World Group Limited (1179.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$409.05 - $746.14$699.24
Multi-Stage$122.42 - $133.77$127.99
Blended Fair Value$413.62
Current Price$24.22
Upside1,607.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.53%0.00%3.300.000.390.000.640.620.000.290.260.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%3.04%0.00%-100.00%10.87%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.40%0.00%1.18%0.00%1.82%2.20%0.00%1.17%0.95%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,956.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,907.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)791.20494.50296.70
Cash Retained (M)49.0049.0049.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-791.20-494.50-296.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-742.20-445.50-247.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,054.421,054.421,054.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.42-0.23
LTM Dividend per Share3.713.713.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.70-0.42-0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$409.05$699.24$746.14
Upside / Downside1,588.91%2,787.05%2,980.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,956.004,213.144,486.994,778.655,089.265,420.065,582.66
Payout Ratio98.76%97.01%95.26%93.50%91.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,907.004,087.134,274.174,468.254,669.514,878.065,163.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,809.733,845.843,881.95
Year 2 PV (M)3,713.663,784.403,855.80
Year 3 PV (M)3,618.803,722.683,828.53
Year 4 PV (M)3,525.113,660.683,800.12
Year 5 PV (M)3,432.603,598.403,770.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,985.69116,346.34121,912.15
Equity Value (M)129,085.59134,958.33141,049.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,054.421,054.421,054.42
Fair Value$122.42$127.99$133.77
Upside / Downside405.46%428.46%452.31%

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