Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Allegion plc (0Y5C.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$505.04 - $1,463.32$1,371.29
Multi-Stage$223.22 - $244.52$233.67
Blended Fair Value$802.48
Current Price$177.42
Upside352.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.67%18.73%1.931.831.661.491.351.160.920.700.530.44
YoY Growth--5.23%10.28%11.55%9.97%16.60%26.70%30.38%32.39%20.10%27.67%
Dividend Yield--1.50%1.40%1.58%1.33%1.09%1.38%0.99%0.84%0.77%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)640.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)468.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)128.0880.0548.03
Cash Retained (M)468.57468.57468.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-128.08-80.05-48.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.49388.52420.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)86.7086.7086.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.934.484.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.981.981.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.934.484.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.916.466.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.09%6.09%7.09%
Fair Value$505.04$1,371.29$1,463.32
Upside / Downside184.66%672.91%724.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)640.40679.38720.73764.60811.13860.50886.32
Payout Ratio26.83%39.47%52.10%64.73%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.83268.12375.49494.94627.54774.45819.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.09%6.09%7.09%
Year 1 PV (M)249.81252.19254.57
Year 2 PV (M)325.97332.20338.50
Year 3 PV (M)400.33411.87423.63
Year 4 PV (M)472.93491.19509.97
Year 5 PV (M)543.79570.17597.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,359.9218,201.7819,075.98
Equity Value (M)19,352.7620,259.3921,200.19
Shares Outstanding (M)86.7086.7086.70
Fair Value$223.22$233.67$244.52
Upside / Downside25.81%31.71%37.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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