Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Befesa S.A. (0RVK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.09 - $63.95$37.89
Multi-Stage$28.73 - $31.47$30.07
Blended Fair Value$33.98
Current Price$27.68
Upside22.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.27%0.00%0.741.261.261.180.631.130.740.080.000.00
YoY Growth---41.60%0.00%6.84%88.19%-44.70%53.02%855.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.88%4.00%3.02%1.65%1.10%4.26%1.85%0.18%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.005.633.38
Cash Retained (M)15.8115.8115.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.00-5.63-3.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.8110.1812.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.7139.7139.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.260.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.260.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Fair Value$25.09$37.89$63.95
Upside / Downside-9.36%36.90%131.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.0146.7848.6350.5552.5454.6156.25
Payout Ratio64.88%69.90%74.93%79.95%84.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.2032.7036.4440.4144.6549.1552.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Year 1 PV (M)30.3630.6630.95
Year 2 PV (M)31.4132.0232.64
Year 3 PV (M)32.3533.3034.27
Year 4 PV (M)33.1834.4935.84
Year 5 PV (M)33.9235.6037.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)979.661,028.171,078.59
Equity Value (M)1,140.891,194.251,249.64
Shares Outstanding (M)39.7139.7139.71
Fair Value$28.73$30.07$31.47
Upside / Downside3.79%8.65%13.69%

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