Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NCC AB (publ) (0OFP.IL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$176.49 - $286.94$226.00
Multi-Stage$357.70 - $393.76$375.37
Blended Fair Value$300.69
Current Price$216.20
Upside39.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.57%-4.92%7.995.996.325.502.754.428.838.843.3113.23
YoY Growth--33.28%-5.18%14.87%100.00%-37.73%-50.00%-0.12%166.98%-74.96%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.20%4.12%6.88%4.11%1.87%3.39%6.10%5.57%1.50%6.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,586.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)390.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,196.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)317.20198.25118.95
Cash Retained (M)1,196.001,196.001,196.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-317.20-198.25-118.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)878.80997.751,077.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.8097.8097.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.9910.2011.01
LTM Dividend per Share3.993.993.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.9910.2011.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.9714.1915.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.87%0.13%1.13%
Fair Value$176.49$226.00$286.94
Upside / Downside-18.37%4.53%32.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,586.001,588.111,590.231,592.341,594.461,596.591,644.48
Payout Ratio24.59%37.67%50.75%63.84%76.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)390.00598.28807.101,016.491,226.431,436.931,521.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-0.87%0.13%1.13%
Year 1 PV (M)556.57562.18567.80
Year 2 PV (M)698.50712.66726.96
Year 3 PV (M)818.38843.39868.92
Year 4 PV (M)918.57956.20994.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,001.201,052.721,106.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,988.9132,583.7634,243.60
Equity Value (M)34,982.1236,710.9138,508.60
Shares Outstanding (M)97.8097.8097.80
Fair Value$357.70$375.37$393.76
Upside / Downside65.45%73.62%82.13%

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