Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Company RUSAL, International Public Joint-Stock Company (0486.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.24 - $0.35$0.29
Multi-Stage$0.44 - $0.48$0.46
Blended Fair Value$0.37
Current Price$0.50
Upside-25.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.020.000.000.000.000.020.020.02
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%19.60%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%4.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.25%3.17%4.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)433.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)433.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.7054.1932.51
Cash Retained (M)433.50433.50433.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.70-54.19-32.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)346.80379.31400.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,193.0115,193.0115,193.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.24$0.29$0.35
Upside / Downside-52.90%-41.82%-29.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)433.50429.17424.87420.62416.42412.25424.62
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0077.25152.95227.14299.82371.03392.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)71.1471.8772.59
Year 2 PV (M)129.72132.38135.07
Year 3 PV (M)177.41182.89188.49
Year 4 PV (M)215.66224.60233.81
Year 5 PV (M)245.78258.58271.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,796.586,098.426,412.71
Equity Value (M)6,636.306,968.757,314.59
Shares Outstanding (M)15,193.0115,193.0115,193.01
Fair Value$0.44$0.46$0.48
Upside / Downside-12.73%-8.35%-3.81%

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