Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chinasoft International Limited (0354.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.29 - $87.66$54.97
Multi-Stage$11.41 - $12.50$11.95
Blended Fair Value$33.46
Current Price$4.55
Upside635.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.70%0.00%0.070.050.030.030.020.020.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--37.84%73.89%13.46%35.34%7.66%30.50%47.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.95%0.49%0.32%0.27%0.46%0.40%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,188.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)997.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.67148.5489.13
Cash Retained (M)997.66997.66997.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.67-148.54-89.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)759.99849.12908.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.462,685.462,685.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Fair Value$21.29$54.97$87.66
Upside / Downside367.92%1,108.11%1,826.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,188.351,260.571,337.181,418.451,504.661,596.111,643.99
Payout Ratio16.05%30.84%45.63%60.42%75.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190.68388.72610.13857.011,131.641,436.501,520.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Year 1 PV (M)360.46363.89367.32
Year 2 PV (M)524.62534.66544.78
Year 3 PV (M)683.32703.02723.09
Year 4 PV (M)836.69869.00902.24
Year 5 PV (M)984.861,032.631,082.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,258.4228,580.4029,953.19
Equity Value (M)30,648.3832,083.5933,572.84
Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.462,685.462,685.46
Fair Value$11.41$11.95$12.50
Upside / Downside150.83%162.57%174.76%

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