DDM Analysis: 0258.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.96 - $2.63	$2.30
Multi-Stage	$6.27 - $6.97	$6.61
Blended Fair Value	$4.46
Current Price	$2.83
Upside	57.50%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-38.54%	-5.27%	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.58%	-65.17%	0.00%	-50.00%	-38.89%	90.89%	0.78%	95.79%	172.66%	-35.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.50%	1.11%	3.29%	2.45%	5.34%	8.65%	3.98%	2.58%	1.73%	0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	982.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	75.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	906.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	196.46	122.78	73.67
Cash Retained (M)	906.76	906.76	906.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-196.46	-122.78	-73.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	710.30	783.97	833.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,114.27	2,114.27	2,114.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.37	0.39
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.37	0.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.41	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-10.61%	-9.61%	-8.61%
Fair Value	$1.96	$2.30	$2.63
Upside / Downside	-30.79%	-18.65%	-7.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	982.28	887.89	802.58	725.46	655.76	592.75	610.53
Payout Ratio	7.69%	24.15%	40.61%	57.08%	73.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	75.52	214.43	325.95	414.06	482.23	533.47	564.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	-10.61%	-9.61%	-8.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	199.39	201.62	203.85
Year 2 PV (M)	281.83	288.17	294.58
Year 3 PV (M)	332.90	344.20	355.75
Year 4 PV (M)	360.51	376.92	393.88
Year 5 PV (M)	370.85	392.06	414.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,707.64	12,377.31	13,077.28
Equity Value (M)	13,253.13	13,980.29	14,739.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,114.27	2,114.27	2,114.27
Fair Value	$6.27	$6.61	$6.97
Upside / Downside	121.50%	133.65%	146.34%

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Tomson Group Limited (0258.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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