Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Johnson Electric Holdings Limited (0179.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.57 - $6.08$4.66
Multi-Stage$3.79 - $4.15$3.97
Blended Fair Value$4.32
Current Price$5.23
Upside-17.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.00%2.90%0.080.060.010.060.020.030.050.060.060.06
YoY Growth--37.63%322.35%-77.07%218.15%-33.59%-40.81%-23.30%1.99%1.84%0.20%
Dividend Yield--3.85%3.75%1.04%4.47%0.71%1.55%2.13%2.08%1.71%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)190.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5632.8519.71
Cash Retained (M)190.58190.58190.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.56-32.85-19.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.02157.73170.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)933.25933.25933.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Fair Value$3.57$4.66$6.08
Upside / Downside-31.70%-10.85%16.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.80273.29284.19295.53307.33319.59329.18
Payout Ratio27.48%39.98%52.49%64.99%77.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.22109.27149.17192.08238.17287.63304.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)98.8599.81100.77
Year 2 PV (M)122.06124.44126.85
Year 3 PV (M)142.17146.35150.62
Year 4 PV (M)159.47165.75172.22
Year 5 PV (M)174.21182.83191.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,843.552,984.303,130.58
Equity Value (M)3,540.303,703.493,872.82
Shares Outstanding (M)933.25933.25933.25
Fair Value$3.79$3.97$4.15
Upside / Downside-27.47%-24.12%-20.65%

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