Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kyungin Synthetic Co., Ltd. (012610.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,615.32 - $4,748.47$3,502.82
Multi-Stage$4,503.69 - $4,950.63$4,722.86
Blended Fair Value$4,112.84
Current Price$2,905.00
Upside41.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.65%1.65%55.3750.2350.1849.8249.2348.5948.0247.8447.2351.27
YoY Growth--10.23%0.10%0.73%1.20%1.32%1.18%0.38%1.28%-7.89%9.06%
Dividend Yield--1.90%1.36%1.06%0.78%0.74%0.94%0.78%0.76%1.11%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,658.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,278.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,380.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,531.76957.35574.41
Cash Retained (M)5,380.665,380.665,380.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,531.76-957.35-574.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,848.914,423.314,806.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.3341.3341.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share93.14107.04116.30
LTM Dividend per Share55.1355.1355.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share93.14107.04116.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend148.26162.16171.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Fair Value$2,615.32$3,502.82$4,748.47
Upside / Downside-9.97%20.58%63.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,658.797,785.087,913.458,043.938,176.578,311.408,560.74
Payout Ratio29.75%41.80%53.85%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,278.133,253.874,261.175,300.806,373.567,480.267,918.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Year 1 PV (M)3,029.353,059.443,089.54
Year 2 PV (M)3,693.403,767.163,841.65
Year 3 PV (M)4,277.494,406.264,537.59
Year 4 PV (M)4,788.284,981.435,180.36
Year 5 PV (M)5,231.945,497.075,772.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)165,094.62173,460.73182,162.61
Equity Value (M)186,115.08195,172.09204,584.59
Shares Outstanding (M)41.3341.3341.33
Fair Value$4,503.69$4,722.86$4,950.63
Upside / Downside55.03%62.58%70.42%

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