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Definitive Analysis

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Hwacheon Machinery Co., Ltd. (010660.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,876.17 - $11,914.08$6,189.69
Multi-Stage$13,452.79 - $14,866.07$14,145.24
Blended Fair Value$10,167.47
Current Price$5,630.00
Upside80.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.23%-10.40%30.6527.589.190.000.009.199.190.0032.1982.75
YoY Growth--11.11%199.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-61.11%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.44%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.45%0.42%0.00%1.48%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,455.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)879.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,575.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)691.17431.98259.19
Cash Retained (M)2,575.982,575.982,575.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-691.17-431.98-259.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,884.802,143.992,316.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.5321.5321.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share87.5399.56107.59
LTM Dividend per Share40.8640.8640.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share87.5399.56107.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend128.39140.42148.45
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3,876.17$6,189.69$11,914.08
Upside / Downside-31.15%9.94%111.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,455.873,421.313,387.103,353.233,319.693,286.503,385.09
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.18%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)879.891,312.711,736.792,152.252,559.222,957.853,131.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,283.461,296.561,309.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,660.251,694.301,728.70
Year 3 PV (M)2,011.552,073.762,137.24
Year 4 PV (M)2,338.622,435.552,535.46
Year 5 PV (M)2,642.662,780.272,923.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)279,754.75294,322.23309,490.34
Equity Value (M)289,691.29304,602.67320,124.94
Shares Outstanding (M)21.5321.5321.53
Fair Value$13,452.79$14,145.24$14,866.07
Upside / Downside138.95%151.25%164.05%

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