Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Namyang Dairy Products Co., Ltd (003920.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14,145.02 - $19,608.65$16,886.39
Multi-Stage$22,075.46 - $24,308.04$23,169.71
Blended Fair Value$20,028.05
Current Price$64,300.00
Upside-68.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.80%0.40%102.6598.7198.5798.5898.6198.6698.6298.6198.6198.60
YoY Growth--3.99%0.14%0.00%-0.03%-0.05%0.04%0.01%0.00%0.01%0.01%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.18%0.18%0.25%0.33%0.34%0.17%0.15%0.12%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,385.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)835.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,549.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,277.082,673.171,603.90
Cash Retained (M)20,549.4120,549.4120,549.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,277.08-2,673.17-1,603.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,272.3317,876.2318,945.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.678.678.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,877.342,062.382,185.75
LTM Dividend per Share96.4596.4596.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,877.342,062.382,185.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,973.792,158.832,282.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-3.56%-2.56%-1.56%
Fair Value$14,145.02$16,886.39$19,608.65
Upside / Downside-78.00%-73.74%-69.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,385.4020,837.5020,303.6419,783.4519,276.6018,782.7319,346.21
Payout Ratio3.91%21.13%38.35%55.56%72.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)835.994,402.417,785.5310,992.4114,029.8616,904.4517,895.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-3.56%-2.56%-1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)3,964.904,006.024,047.13
Year 2 PV (M)6,314.996,446.646,579.64
Year 3 PV (M)8,030.088,282.488,540.11
Year 4 PV (M)9,230.449,619.3010,020.31
Year 5 PV (M)10,016.4210,546.6311,099.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,787.71161,928.19170,409.80
Equity Value (M)191,344.55200,829.24210,696.03
Shares Outstanding (M)8.678.678.67
Fair Value$22,075.46$23,169.71$24,308.04
Upside / Downside-65.67%-63.97%-62.20%

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