Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Huhua Group Co., Ltd. (003002.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.20 - $183.91$172.35
Multi-Stage$25.09 - $27.48$26.26
Blended Fair Value$99.31
Current Price$25.41
Upside290.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.09%-3.30%0.250.150.160.410.060.060.060.020.040.05
YoY Growth--65.89%-2.03%-62.05%577.02%0.00%0.00%248.29%-52.39%-27.36%-85.78%
Dividend Yield--1.08%1.15%0.78%3.15%0.39%0.51%0.51%0.15%0.31%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.4022.7513.65
Cash Retained (M)151.52151.52151.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.40-22.75-13.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)115.12128.77137.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.80196.80196.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.20$172.35$183.91
Upside / Downside152.67%578.28%623.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.99193.82206.42219.84234.13249.35256.83
Payout Ratio16.74%31.40%46.05%60.70%75.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.4760.8595.05133.44176.41224.41237.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.4957.0257.56
Year 2 PV (M)81.9083.4685.04
Year 3 PV (M)106.73109.80112.92
Year 4 PV (M)130.99136.02141.21
Year 5 PV (M)154.67162.15169.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,406.754,619.604,840.59
Equity Value (M)4,937.545,168.055,407.22
Shares Outstanding (M)196.80196.80196.80
Fair Value$25.09$26.26$27.48
Upside / Downside-1.26%3.35%8.13%

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