Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Rifeng Electric Cable Co., Ltd. (002953.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.98 - $30.79$15.95
Multi-Stage$6.62 - $7.24$6.92
Blended Fair Value$11.44
Current Price$13.07
Upside-12.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.57%1.89%0.120.050.050.050.050.050.050.040.020.05
YoY Growth--148.98%-13.16%16.65%1.03%0.00%-14.07%20.04%96.81%-54.13%-49.16%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.51%0.57%0.56%0.53%0.26%0.83%0.69%0.35%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7521.7213.03
Cash Retained (M)117.12117.12117.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.75-21.72-13.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.3795.40104.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)454.12454.12454.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.98$15.95$30.79
Upside / Downside-23.64%22.02%135.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.73185.03197.05209.86223.50238.03245.17
Payout Ratio32.59%44.07%55.55%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.6281.54109.47140.68175.49214.23226.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.2974.9975.70
Year 2 PV (M)90.8692.5994.33
Year 3 PV (M)106.37109.43112.54
Year 4 PV (M)120.89125.53130.32
Year 5 PV (M)134.44140.93147.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,481.412,601.272,725.71
Equity Value (M)3,008.253,144.743,286.26
Shares Outstanding (M)454.12454.12454.12
Fair Value$6.62$6.92$7.24
Upside / Downside-49.32%-47.02%-44.63%

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