Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Hengmingda Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (002947.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$158.57 - $439.08$411.48
Multi-Stage$61.05 - $66.83$63.89
Blended Fair Value$237.68
Current Price$48.44
Upside390.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.43%0.00%0.460.280.140.150.290.100.000.180.220.22
YoY Growth--64.85%97.57%-3.72%-49.83%200.45%0.00%-100.00%-18.79%2.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.92%0.64%0.73%1.57%0.37%0.00%1.14%1.40%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)553.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)403.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.7969.2441.55
Cash Retained (M)403.86403.86403.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.79-69.24-41.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)293.07334.62362.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.90250.90250.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.171.331.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.171.331.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.771.932.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$158.57$411.48$439.08
Upside / Downside227.36%749.47%806.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)553.95589.96628.30669.14712.64758.96781.73
Payout Ratio27.09%39.68%52.26%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.09234.07328.33433.86551.72683.06723.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)217.36219.42221.48
Year 2 PV (M)283.13288.53293.97
Year 3 PV (M)347.43357.40367.57
Year 4 PV (M)410.28426.05442.28
Year 5 PV (M)471.69494.48518.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,587.1414,243.4014,924.79
Equity Value (M)15,317.0316,029.2916,768.22
Shares Outstanding (M)250.90250.90250.90
Fair Value$61.05$63.89$66.83
Upside / Downside26.03%31.89%37.97%

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