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Definitive Analysis

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ChinaLin Securities Co., Ltd. (002945.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.88 - $5.54$3.95
Multi-Stage$3.38 - $3.70$3.54
Blended Fair Value$3.74
Current Price$16.77
Upside-77.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.55%-7.04%0.030.090.080.110.070.050.030.070.020.20
YoY Growth---65.75%10.30%-28.89%57.47%51.17%50.97%-53.82%225.47%-89.41%213.37%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.75%0.55%0.78%0.60%0.33%0.21%1.32%0.40%3.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)491.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)342.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.2261.3936.83
Cash Retained (M)342.58342.58342.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.22-61.39-36.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)244.36281.19305.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,698.582,698.582,698.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Fair Value$2.88$3.95$5.54
Upside / Downside-82.80%-76.45%-66.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)491.11508.55526.60545.30564.66584.71602.25
Payout Ratio30.24%42.19%54.15%66.10%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.53214.58285.13360.43440.71526.24557.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)197.27199.19201.11
Year 2 PV (M)240.98245.70250.47
Year 3 PV (M)280.04288.31296.74
Year 4 PV (M)314.78327.24340.07
Year 5 PV (M)345.55362.73380.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,740.218,125.038,525.00
Equity Value (M)9,118.829,548.209,993.98
Shares Outstanding (M)2,698.582,698.582,698.58
Fair Value$3.38$3.54$3.70
Upside / Downside-79.85%-78.90%-77.92%

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