Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong New Grand Long Packing Co., Ltd. (002836.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.75 - $2.51$2.12
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.60$5.34
Blended Fair Value$3.73
Current Price$9.81
Upside-62.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.54%-6.13%0.100.340.070.220.070.360.180.070.130.16
YoY Growth---70.95%380.00%-66.67%200.00%-80.00%100.00%150.00%-46.67%-16.67%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--1.27%4.91%0.86%2.99%1.17%5.13%1.58%0.58%0.53%3.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.407.124.27
Cash Retained (M)1.221.221.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.40-7.12-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.18-5.91-3.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)223.18223.18223.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.82%-3.82%-2.82%
Fair Value$1.75$2.12$2.51
Upside / Downside-82.21%-78.40%-74.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.9954.8152.7250.7048.7646.9048.31
Payout Ratio97.86%96.29%94.72%93.15%91.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.7752.7849.9347.2344.6542.2144.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-4.82%-3.82%-2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)49.1349.6450.16
Year 2 PV (M)43.2644.1745.10
Year 3 PV (M)38.0939.3040.54
Year 4 PV (M)33.5234.9536.43
Year 5 PV (M)29.4931.0732.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)941.18991.681,044.32
Equity Value (M)1,134.671,190.821,249.26
Shares Outstanding (M)223.18223.18223.18
Fair Value$5.08$5.34$5.60
Upside / Downside-48.17%-45.61%-42.94%

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