Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen TVT Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (002835.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.68 - $31.23$20.86
Multi-Stage$10.45 - $11.42$10.93
Blended Fair Value$15.89
Current Price$17.17
Upside-7.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS133.99%0.00%0.210.150.120.100.040.000.030.070.090.00
YoY Growth--40.71%25.00%19.94%132.44%1,330.57%-89.81%-60.00%-20.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.01%0.77%0.83%0.39%0.03%0.24%0.72%0.47%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)170.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.1621.3512.81
Cash Retained (M)170.63170.63170.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.16-21.35-12.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.48149.28157.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.19219.19219.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.68$20.86$31.23
Upside / Downside-14.52%21.49%81.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)170.78181.88193.71206.30219.71233.99241.01
Payout Ratio0.09%18.07%36.05%54.04%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1532.8769.84111.47158.23210.59222.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6029.8930.17
Year 2 PV (M)56.6657.7458.83
Year 3 PV (M)81.4683.8086.18
Year 4 PV (M)104.14108.15112.27
Year 5 PV (M)124.84130.87137.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,893.221,984.672,079.61
Equity Value (M)2,289.932,395.112,504.18
Shares Outstanding (M)219.19219.19219.19
Fair Value$10.45$10.93$11.42
Upside / Downside-39.15%-36.36%-33.46%

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