Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ShenZhen Click Technology Co.,LTD. (002782.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.06 - $126.13$118.21
Multi-Stage$73.54 - $80.71$77.06
Blended Fair Value$97.63
Current Price$16.90
Upside477.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.12%15.19%0.090.110.070.150.090.090.170.090.030.02
YoY Growth---13.15%59.84%-54.83%68.64%0.00%-50.00%100.00%150.00%48.61%4.73%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.94%0.36%1.35%0.71%0.92%1.11%0.59%0.15%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0338.7723.26
Cash Retained (M)234.29234.29234.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.03-38.77-23.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.25195.52211.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)489.04489.04489.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.550.59
WACC / Discount Rate2.07%2.07%2.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$107.06$118.21$126.13
Upside / Downside533.48%599.44%646.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.16330.33351.80374.66399.02424.95437.70
Payout Ratio24.46%37.57%50.68%63.79%76.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.88124.11178.28238.98306.81382.46404.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.07%2.07%2.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)120.44121.59122.73
Year 2 PV (M)167.92171.12174.35
Year 3 PV (M)218.44224.72231.11
Year 4 PV (M)272.17282.64293.41
Year 5 PV (M)329.27345.17361.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,856.5336,540.1238,288.13
Equity Value (M)35,964.7837,685.3539,471.40
Shares Outstanding (M)489.04489.04489.04
Fair Value$73.54$77.06$80.71
Upside / Downside335.16%355.98%377.59%

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